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03/15/2010 -
Syracuse, N.Y., 28-4.
Nickname: Orangemen. Coach: Jim Boeheim.
Conference: Big East. Bid: At large.
Region: West. Seed: No. 1.
Tournament Record: 50-32, 32 years. Last appearance: 2009.
Scoring: Team (81.5); Wesley Johnson 16.0; Andy Rautins 11.7; Kris Joseph 11.3; Arinze Onuaku 10.5; Rick Jackson 10.0.
Rebounds: Team (38.2); Wesley Johnson 8.4; Rick Jackson 6.9; Kris Joseph 5.4; Arinze Onuaku 5.1.
Assists/Turnovers: Team (19.4/15.1); Scoop Jardine 4.8/2.1; Andy Rautins 4.7/2.3; Brandon Triche 3.1/2.2; Wesley Johnson 2.3/2.6
3-pointers: Team (.385); Andy Rautins 86; Wesley Johnson 43; Brandon Triche 27.
Last Ten: 7-3.
The Skinny: Keep an eye on Onuaku, who hurt his leg in a loss to Georgetown in the Big East tournament. The Orange have plenty of depth, but he occupies a lot of space in the middle. Keep an eye on Johnson, who had a breakout season after transferring from Iowa State.
VermontBurlington, 25-9.
Nickname: Catamounts. Coach: Mike Lonergan.
Region: West: No. 16.
Conference: America East. Bid: America East champion.
Tournament Record: 1-3, 3 years. Last NCAA Appearance: 2005.
Scoring: Team (70.6); Marqus Blakely 17.4; Maurice Joseph 14.1; Evan Fjeld 10.6.
Rebounds: Team (37.1); Marqus Blakely 9.4; Evan Fjeld 6.1; Garvey Young 4.1.
Assists/Turnovers: Team (12.1/14.1); Marqus Blakely 3.7/3.5; Nick Vier 2.5/1.9.
3-pointers: Team (.321); Maurice Joseph 75; Joey Accaoui 34.
Last Ten: 9-1.
The Skinny: The Catamounts have won 11 of their last 12 games behind Blakely, who had 24 points, 18 rebounds and five assists in the America East title game. The senior class at Vermont has 90 career wins, the most in school history.
---Gonzaga
Spokane, Wash., 26-6.
Nickname: Bulldogs. Coach: Mark Few.
Conference: West Coast. Bid: At large.
Region: West. Seed: No. 8.
Tournament Record: 12-11, 11 years. Last appearance: 2009.
Scoring: Team (77.6); Matt Bouldin 15.8; Elias Harris 14.7; Steve Gray 13.7; Robert Sacre 10.0.
Rebounds: Team (38.2); Elias Harris 7.2; Robert Sacre 5.2; Matt Bouldin 4.6; Steven Gray 4.1.
Assists/Turnovers: Team (13.5/13.1); Matt Bouldin 4.1/2.3; Steven Gray 2.8/2.2.
3-pointers: Team (.363); Matt Bouldin 52; Steven Gray 47.
Last Ten: 9-1.
The Skinny: Gonzaga making the NCAA tournament is becoming routine. Doing it off an 81-62 loss is something entirely new. The Bulldogs are balanced on offense with four double-figure scorers, but need someone to step up when the going gets tough. That didn't happen in their loss to St. Mary's in the West Coast Conference title game.
Florida StateTallahassee, 22-9.
Nickname: Seminoles. Coach: Leonard Hamilton.
Conference: Atlantic Coast. Bid: At large.
Region: West. Seed: No. 9.
Tournament Record: 12-11, 11 years. Last appearance: 2009.
Scoring: Team (68.5); Solomon Alabi 11.6; Chris Singleton 10.3; Michael Snaer 8.8.
Rebounds: Team (38.0); Chris Singleton 7.1; Solomon Alabi 6.2; Derwin Kitchen 4.9; Ryan Reid 4.0.
Assists/Turnovers: Team (13.9/16.8); Derwin Kitchen 3.9/2.2; Luke Loucks 2.8/1.6; Chris Singleton 2.2/3.1.
3-pointers: Team (.336); Deividis Dulkys 67; Chris Singleton 35.
Last Ten: 6-4.
The Skinny: The 'Noles seem to be perpetually on the rise, though this season it's more evident than ever. For proof, look no further than sophomores Alabi and Singleton, who help to give Florida State one of the best defenses in the ACC.
---Butler
Indianapolis, 28-4.
Nickname: Bulldogs. Coach: Brad Stevens.
Conference: Horizon League. Bid: Horizon champion.
Region: West. Seed: No. 5.
Tournament Record: 8-9, 9 years. Last appearance: 2009.
Scoring: Team (70.1); Gordan Hayward 15.4; Shelvin Mack 13.9; Matt Howard 12.3; Willie Veasley 10.3.
Rebounds: Team (32.8); Gordan Hayward 8.5; Matt Howard 5.4; Willie Veasley 4.3.
Assists/Turnovers: Team (12.8/12.4); Ronald Nored 3.6/1.9; Shelvin Mack 3.1/2.1.
3-pointers: Team (.342); Shelvin Mack 55; Zach Hahn 43; Willie Veasley 40; Gordon Hayward 39.
Last Ten: 10-0.
The Skinny: The Bulldogs take a nation-leading 20-game win streak into the NCAA tournament after routing Wright State 70-45 in the Horizon League title game. They're the first team in league history to run unbeaten through the conference regular season and tournament, and are making their fourth straight NCAA tournament appearance.
UTEPEl Paso, Texas, 26-6.
Nickname: Miners. Coach: Tony Barbee.
Conference: Conference USA. Bid: At large.
Region: West. Seed: No. 12.
Tournament Record: 14-15, 16 years. Last appearance: 2005.
Scoring: Team (75.8); Randy Culpepper 18.0; Derrick Caracter 13.8; Jeremy Williams 10.1; Arnett Moultrie 10.1; Christian Polk 9.6.;
Rebounds: Team (36.3); Derrick Caracter 8.0; Arnett Moultrie 6.8; Julyan Stone 5.1; Jeremy Williams 4.7.
Assists/Turnovers: Team (14.8/13.2); Julyan Stone 5.4/2.0; Myron Strong 2.0/1.0.
3-pointers: Team (.347); Randy Culpepper 80; Christian Polk 45.
Last Ten: 9-1.
The Skinny: Barbee and Culpepper swept the top two individual awards in Conference USA voting. Barbee joins Don Haskins and Billy Gillispie as the only coach of the year winners in school history, while Culpepper joined Tim Hardaway as the only players of the year from UTEP. Pretty good company all around.
---Vanderbilt
Nashville, Tenn., 24-8.
Nickname: Commodores. Coach: Kevin Stallings.
Conference: Southeastern. Bid: At large.
Region: West. Seed: No. 4.
Tournament Record: 9-11, 11 years. Last appearance: 2008.
Scoring: Team (77.2); Jermaine Beal 14.7; A.J. Ogilvy 13.4; Jeffery Taylor 13.4; John Jenkins 10.9.
Rebounds: Team (36.4); A.J. Ogilvy 6.2; Andre Walker 5.5; Jeffery Taylor 5.2.
Assists/Turnovers: Team (13.2/13.7); Brad Tinsley 3.2/1.9; Jermaine Beal 2.9/1.5; Andre Walker 2.4/1.7.
3-pointers: Team (.369); Jermaine Beal 70; John Jenkins 70; Brad Tinsley 31.
Last Ten: 7-3.
The Skinny: Beal's nickname is ``Dolla,'' as in, ``Dolla Beal.'' Maybe he ought to major in finance, because he's been handing out a lot of dimes, too. Beal set a school record for assists by a sophomore two years ago and is still the guy that makes the offense move.
Murray St.Murray, Ky., 30-4.
Nickname: Racers. Coach: Billy Kennedy.
Conference: Ohio Valley. Bid: OVC champion.
Region: West. Seed: No. 13.
Tournament Record: 1-13, 13 years. Last appearance: 2006.
Scoring: Team (77.5); Ivan Aska 10.6; B.J. Jenkins 10.5; Danero Thomas 10.4; Tony Easley 10.4.
Rebounds: Team (36.5); Tony Easley 5.8; Ivan Aska 4.9; Jeffery McClain 4.2; Danero Thomas 4.2.
Assists/Turnovers: Team (15.6/14.6); Isacc Miles 3.8/2.1; B.J. Jenkins 3.2/1.6; Danero Thomas 2.5/1.5.
3-pointers: Team (.368); B.J. Jenkins 63; Isaiah Cannan 48; Isacc Miles 42; Danero Thomas 37.
Last Ten: 9-1.
The Skinny: The Racers are the first school from the Ohio Valley Conference to win 30 games, setting a school record by beating Morehead State in the league tournament. Jenkins has provided a steady influence in the backcourt after transferring from Liberty.
---Xavier
Cincinnati, 24-8.
Nickname: Musketeers. Coach: Chris Mack.
Conference: Atlantic 10. Bid: At large.
Region: West. Seed: No. 6.
Tournament Record: 17-20, 20 years. Last appearance: 2009.
Scoring: Team (80.0); Jordan Crawford 19.7; Jason Love 11.9; Terrell Holloway 11.8.
Rebounds: Team (40.1); Jason Love 8.6; Jamel McLean 7.3; Jordan Crawford 4.8; Kenny Frease 4.5.
Assists/Turnovers: Team (15.0/13.2); Terrell Holloway 3.9/1.9; Jordan Crawford 2.9/2.4; Dante Jackson 2.3/1.8; Mark Lyons 2.1/1.8.
3-pointers: Team (.372); Jordan Crawford 67; Dante Jackson 49; Brad Redford 45; Terrell Holloway 34.
Last Ten: 8-2.
The Skinny: The A-10 regular-season co-champions feature Crawford, the league's leading scorer, and Love, a senior who has already broken the school record for wins in a career. The Musketeers can score points with anybody, but how well can they defend?
MinnesotaMinneapolis, 21-13.
Nickname: Golden Gophers. Coach: Tubby Smith.
Conference: Big Ten. Bid: At large.
Region: West. Seed: No. 11.
Tournament Record: 12-10, 10 years. Last appearance: 2009.
Scoring: Team (73.3); Lawrence Westbrook 12.5; Blake Hoffarber 10.5; Damian Johnson 10.1.
Rebounds: Team (35.5); Ralph Sampson III 6.0; Colton Iverson 4.4; Damian Johnson 4.3.
Assists/Turnovers: Team (16.8/12.7); Al Nolen 4.6/1.6; Devoe Joseph 3.0/1.8; Damian Johnson 2.2/1.3; Lawrence Westbrook 2.2/2.3.
3-pointers: Team (.403); Blake Hoffarber 83; Lawrence Westbrook 50; Devoe Joseph 50.
Last Ten: 7-3.
The Skinny: Blake Hoffarber is second in the nation in 3-point field goal percentage, while Westbrook is one of the best scorers in the Big Ten. The Gophers sorely miss Al Nolen, who is done for the season after being declared academically ineligible.
---Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh, 24-8.
Nickname: Panthers. Coach: Jamie Dixon.
Conference: Big East. Bid: At large.
Region: West. Seed: No. 3.
Tournament Record: 21-22, 21 years. Last appearance: 2009.
Scoring: Team (68.1); Ashton Gibbs 15.8; Brad Wanamaker 12.1; Jermaine Dixon 10.7; Gilbert Brown 10.3.
Rebounds: Team (37.3); Gary McGhee 6.9; Brad Wanamaker 5.7; Nasir Robinson 5.6.
Assists/Turnovers: Team (15.8/12.4); Brad Wanamaker 4.7/2.7; Travon Woodall 3.2/1.7; Jermaine Dixon 2.3/1.5.
3-pointers: Team (.343); Ashton Gibbs 74; Brad Wanamaker 25.
Last Ten: 8-2.
The Skinny: Is there a more underrated coach in the country than Dixon? The Panthers lost DeJuan Blair, Sam Young and Levance Fields from a team that went 31-5 and still managed to battle for the Big East title. The emergence of Gibbs is a big reason why.
OaklandRochester, Mich., 26-8.
Nickname: Golden Grizzlies. Coach: Greg Kampe.
Conference: Summit League. Bid: Summit champion.
Region: West. Seed: No. 14.
Tournament Record: 1-1, 1 year. Last NCAA Appearance: 2005.
Scoring: Team (76.8); Keith Benson 17.0; Johnathon Jones 12.4; Derick Nelson 12.4; Larry Wright 11.1.
Rebounds: Team (38.6); Keith Benson 10.5; Derick Nelson 6.1; Will Hudson 5.1.
Assists/Turnovers: Team (13.4/13.8); Johnathon Jones 6.4/3.1.
3-pointers: Team (.326); Larry Wright 53; Johnathon Jones 41; Derick Nelson 40; Blake Cushingberry 31.
Last Ten: 10-0.
The Skinny: Nelson scored a career-high 36 points against IUPUI in the Summit League title game - with a broken nose. Talk about tough. The Golden Grizzlies are riding a school-record 11 game winning streak into their second NCAA tournament appearance.
---BYU
Provo, Utah, 29-5.
Nickname: Cougars. Coach: Dave Rose.
Conference: Mountain West. Bid: At large.
Region: West. Seed: No. 7.
Tournament Record: 11-27, 24 years. Last NCAA Appearance: 2009.
Scoring: Team (83.0); Jimmer Fredette 21.7; Jackson Emery 12.6; Tyler Haws 11.3; Jonathan Tavernari 10.3.
Rebounds: Team (37.4); Noah Hartsock 5.1; Jackson Emery 4.5; Jonathan Tavernari 4.5; Tyler Haws 4.3.
Assists/Turnovers: Team (16.0/11.5); Jimmer Fredette 4.7/2.6; Jackson Emery 2.8/1.2.
3-pointers: Team (.419); Jackson Emery 80; Jimmer Fredette 73; Jonathan Tavernari 60.
Last Ten: 7-3.
The Skinny: Fredette claims his sports hero is former Utah Jazz star John Stockton, and their games are somewhat similar. Fredette is a more prolific scorer but, just like Stockton, he can also distribute the ball. Then again, it's easy to share with guys like Emery and Haws around him.
FloridaGainesville, 21-12.
Nickname: Gators. Coach: Billy Donovan.
Conference: Southeastern. Bid: At large.
Region: West. Seed: No. 10.
Tournament Record: 29-12, 14 years. Last appearance: 2007.
Scoring: Team (71.6); Kenny Boynton 13.6; Erving Walker 12.6; Chandlet Parsons 12.1; Alex Tyus 12.0; Vernon Macklin 10.4.
Rebounds: Team (37.0); Alex Tyus 6.8; Chandler Parsons 6.8; Vernon Macklin 5.5.
Assists/Turnovers: Team (14.1/12.2); Erving Walker 4.9/2.4; Kenny Boynton 2.7/1.9; Chandler Parsons 2.5/1.9; Dan Werner 2.0/1.5.
3-pointers: Team (.313); Kenny Boynton 67; Erving Walker 64; Chandler Parsons 36.
Last Ten: 4-6.
The Skinny: Boynton had a terrific rookie season, leading the Gators in scoring and finishing second on the team in assists. Balance is the key for Donovan's team, though, with five guys averaging double figures scoring. Keep an eye on Parsons, an exceptional shooter.
---Kansas State
Manhattan, 26-7.
Nickname: Wildcats. Coach: Frank Martin.
Conference: Big 12. Bid: At large.
Region: West. Seed: No. 2.
Tournament Record: 28-27, 23 years. Last appearance: 2008.
Scoring: Team (79.6); Jacob Pullen 18.9; Denis Clemente 16.2; Jamar Samuels 11.9; Curtis Kelly 11.1.
Rebounds: Team (39.1); Curtis Kelly 6.3; Dominique Sutton 5.8; Jamar Samuels 5.2; Luis Colon 4.0.
Assists/Turnovers: Team (14.8/14.5); Denis Clemente 4.2/2.0; Jacob Pullen 3.5/2.6; Dominique Sutton 2.0/1.6.
3-pointers: Team (.356); Jacob Pullen 93; Denis Clemente 77.
Last Ten: 7-3.
The Skinny: Most critics called Martin a baby sitter for Michael Beasley and Bill Walker when he was hired to replace Bob Huggins. He's proven them all wrong. And with only one senior in Clemente providing significant minutes, Pullen and the Wildcats should remain relevant for quite a while. Fear the beard?
North TexasDenton, Texas, 24-8.
Nickname: Mean Green. Coach: Johnny Jones.
Conference: Sun Belt. Bid: Sun Belt champion.
Region: West. Seed: No. 15.
Tournament Record: 0-2, 2 years. Last appearance: 2007.
Scoring: Team (76.8); Josh White 14.9; Tristan Thompson 14.1; Eric Tramiel 13.0; George Odufuwa 11.5.
Rebounds: Team (37.0); George Odufuwa 10.7; Eric Tramiel 5.9.
Assists/Turnovers: Team (12.1/14.7); Josh White 3.5/3.2; Shannon Shorter 2.2/1.7.
3-pointers: Team (.337); Josh White 57; Tristan Thompson 57.
Last Ten: 10-0.
The Skinny: The Mean Green enter the NCAA tournament on an 11-game win streak, and their 24 wins is the best in school history. Keep an eye on White, whose free throw with 2.9 seconds left lifted North Texas over Troy in the Sun Belt Conference title game.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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